Mana Base Improved and Squee is Back!

It's getting better every iteration

Introduction

This is the eight version of my Gruul aggro deck, which is based on a red aggro deck shell. In this version, Squee, Dubious Monarch is back to the deck roster. I also removed Rockfall Vales from the deck, as it turned out that 10 green mana sources provide a 83.05 % chance of getting at least 1 green mana by turn 3, which is about the same chance as getting at least two red mana sources by turn 3 with 19 red mana producing lands (85.35 %). I dropped the number of Questing Druids to 2, because it's a bit clunky and does not have haste.

Format

• The deck is for the Standard format with The Lost Caverns of Ixalan being the last legal set.
• The deck is probably Tier 1 or Tier 1.5 caliber.
• The deck can be played in both Bo1 and Bo3.
• The deck is pretty fast, and thus it's suitable for quickly grinding a large number of wins in the MTG Arena ladder.

Source

This is my own brew.

Overview

Strengths

• Almost as fast as a traditional red aggro deck.
• Access to enchantment removal, such as Boseiju, Who Endures.
• Samut, Vizier of Naktamun can draw you lots of cards while not sacrificing much damage.
• Samut, Vizier of Naktamun has vigilance, which might help against The Wandering Emperor and in defense.
• Samut, Vizier of Naktamun's first strike can be useful at times, too. It's especially nice with instants.
• Seek the Beast can provide you with extra cards, if you are running out of gas.
• Every spell in the deck boost up Questing Druid.
• All creatures in the deck can block.
• All removal spells in the deck are instants.
• First 3 lands always come into play untapped.

Weaknesses

• Most creatures die to Cut Down and Gix's Command.
• Only Goddric, Cloaked Reveler can fly among the creatures in the deck. However, flying creatures don't usually deal much damage, slowing you down.
• Witchstalker Frenzy cannot be cast by Bloodthirsty Adversary, because it costs 4 mana.

Mana Base Statistics

• Total of 23 lands
• 19 lands produce red mana
• 10 lands produce green mana
• 2 lands produce colorless mana

Starting Hand Probabilities

Bo3 (No Hand Smoothing)

• At least two lands: 83.49 %
• 2–5 lands: 82.46 %
• At least 1 red mana: 94.18 %
• At least 2 red mana: 72.06 %
• At least 1 green mana: 74.14 %

Bo1 (Hand Smoothing)

Ranked Queue (Best of 2 Hands)

Hand smoothing in the ranked queue takes the best of 2 different starting hands (of 2 different deck shuffles).

• 2–5 lands: 96.92 % (approximately)

Play Queue (Best of 3 Hands)

Hand smoothing in the play queue takes the best of 3 different starting hands (of 3 different deck shuffles).

• 2–5 lands: 99.46 % (approximately)

Land Probabilities

Probabilities are for on the play / on the draw.

Land Count

With 2-Land Starting Hand

• At least 3 lands by turn 3: 64.01 % / 78.83 %
• At least 4 lands by turn 4: 34.36 % / 52.15 %
• At least 5 lands by turn 5: 16.58 % / 30.37 %

With 3-Land Starting Hand

• At least 4 lands by turn 4: 76.71 % / 86.03 %
• At least 5 lands by turn 5: 48.76 % / 63.21 %

With 4-Land Starting Hand

• At least 5 lands by turn 5: 84.16 % / 90.30 %

With Any Starting Hand

• At least 3 lands by turn 3: 75.53 % / 82.79 %
• At least 4 lands by turn 4: 58.60 % / 68.28 %
• At least 5 lands by turn 5: 41.67 % / 51.99 %

Color Count

With 1-Red-Mana Starting Hand

• At least 2 red mana by turn 2: 33.96 % / 56.82 %
• At least 2 red mana by turn 3: 56.82 % / 72.06 %
• At least 3 red mana by turn 3: 11.10 % / 26.34 %

With 0-Green-Mana Starting Hand

• At least 1 green mana by turn 2: 18.87 % / 34.47 %
• At least 1 green mana by turn 3: 34.47 % / 47.32 %
• At least 1 green mana by turn 4: 47.32 % / 57.86 %

With Any Starting Hand

• At least 2 red mana by turn 2: 79.57 % / 85.35 %
• At least 2 red mana by turn 3: 85.35 % / 89.68 %
• At least 1 green mana by turn 2: 79.02 % / 83.05 %
• At least 1 green mana by turn 3: 83.05 % / 86.38 %
• At least 1 green mana by turn 4: 86.38 % / 89.10 %