Arena Standard - Tibalt's Meme KHM Theorycraft
- Deck contains 12 invalid cards for this format: Tibalt's Trickery (KHM), Ugin, the Spirit Dragon (M21), Tormod's Crypt (M21), Esika, God of the Tree (KHM), Valki, God of Lies (KHM), Yidaro, Wandering Monster (IKO), Koma, Cosmos Serpent (KHM), Emergent Ultimatum (IKO), Demon of Loathing (THB), Moraug, Fury of Akoum (ZNR), The World Tree (KHM), Massacre Wurm (M21)
Main 60 cards (13 distinct)
Lands - 36
Main 60 cards (13 distinct)
Lands - 36
Main 60 cards (13 distinct)
| Instant, Sorcery, Enchantment, Artifact (12) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| $7.50€7.550.02 | |||
| $0.40€0.500.04 | |||
| $0.97€1.190.02 | |||
| Planeswalker (2) | |||
| $17.72€19.760.03 | |||
| Creature (10) | |||
| $10.50 | |||
| $5.35 | |||
| $0.40€0.240.02 | |||
| $9.99 | |||
| $0.500.02 | |||
| $7.71 | |||
| $1.80€2.000.02 | |||
| Land (36) | |||
|
32
Mountain
|
|||
| $4.69€4.440.02 | |||
(Simplified, true algorithm in MTGA not revealed by Wizards yet)
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Wizards did it again! The disgusting combo deck that I totally expect to get banned a month from release is here!
This deck is guns for the ridiculous combo of countering our own Tormod's Crypt with Tibalt's Trickery on turn 2 in order to search for a ridiculous threat (or two) that can end the game in a couple of turns.
There are two main things we want to hit: Emergent Ultimatum and name Esika and two other threats, or Esika, God of the Tree
with the intention of casting the enchantment side. Having Prismatic Bridge on the battlefield will allow us to play a new threat every turn out of our library for free from turn 3 onwards. Hitting an Ultimatum can allow us to diversify our threats and make it even more difficult for the opponent to have the necessary removal tools in hand, plus we can still name one of our Esika's since only her front side counts when in the library and so she's mono-green as far as Ultimatum is concerned. From there, not much more to say really, your opponent has probably already conceded.
I wrote a script to calculate the chances of opening with the combo including mulling hard for it. To simply find a hand with the two combo pieces in it there's a 65% chance, if we've mulled hard enough, this might not leave us with enough lands to cast on T2 though so I also calculated specifically for having the tools and the lands:
Chance of T2 combo on the play: 60%
Chance of T2 combo on the draw: 65%
Resulting average chance of T2 combo: 63%
Since this is above 50%, the deck is at least viable. However, our chosen threats (likely meta-dependant), the unavoidable chance to hit another Tibalt's Trickery, and some amount of opponent interaction will clearly drop our winrate from these numbers.
I think I remember something about necessary winrate for a deck to be considered tournament viable. I believe at high level play you should be able to pilot the deck with a winrate of somewhere around 67%, plus minus a percent or two. It comes, really, as a relief then that this deck is pretty much hard capped below that so it will never be tier 1. Nonetheless, I'm sure with the right play and the right combination of threats this can put a positive win ratio and do it in a style like no other deck in standard. Be fearful, and let the memes flow.
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Created: 13 Jan 2021
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With the MTGA Assistant deck tracker
| 32 | 4 | 14 | 10 | 0 |
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| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
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