Limited Report: Innistrad Midnight Hunt

Information Limited 
By: variancekills - 20 Sep 2021

A lot of players are curious about how good you need to be in draft in order to profit from MTGA draft events. In response to this, I am writing this article as part of a series where I provide details of my limited run every set.

Context

As I discussed in a previous article, part of what makes playing MTGA efficient for the FTP or almost FTP player is being decent in limited. Having enough clout in this format will make the entire experience of collecting cards much more pleasant. How much clout? The following figure provides a good idea.

As shown in the figure, you need at least a 30% win rate in Quick Draft in order to make it more efficient on average than just buying packs with your gold. On the other hand, you need a higher win rate, about 53%, to say the same about premier or traditional draft. Furthermore, if you do have a high win rate in Premier/Traditional, you are better off playing that than Quick Draft on average. As for choosing between Premier or Traditional, that is a more complicated question. However, I have chosen Premier over Traditional since ZNR.

MID Limited Run

For Innistrad Midnight Hunt, I did 15 Premier Draft runs. The goal was to get to at least 120 in terms of number of packs won + number of rares opened from draft packs. This gives me enough packs to get at least some of the rares I might need. Then, I try to win about 70 or so packs from the Metagame Challenge. In combination with the free packs from the mastery pass and end of season rewards, this strategy leads to almost completing all the rares by the next set while minimizing your draft costs (depending on your performance, of course).

My limited run started fantastic with an early 7-2 with UB, followed by a disappointing 2-3 and an even more disappointing 0-3 (I tried to draft UGbrw flashback). Following this slump however, my runs suddenly caught fire. I didn’t lose more than 100 gems again until the 11th run where I went 3-3, and then the final run where I also went 3-3. Overall, in 15 runs, I went 7 wins 4 times, 6 wins thrice, 5 wins twice, 4 wins twice, 3 wins twice, and 2 and 0 wins once each. This translated to a very nice 67% match win rate, which is much higher than my typical draft win rate which is around 56%. This is my highest win rate in draft since perhaps, Ikoria, when premier draft was first offered. As a result, the total cost of 15 drafts was…. 0 gems. It took 15 hours, spread across the days from release to the Sunday after. I won 60 packs and pulled 80 rares from draft packs. This leads to a rare completion percentage of about 56%. I expect to win more packs from next week’s metagame challenge to fill the rest of what I need to complete MID. This run was definitely an outlier, and I don’t expect to be able to replicate it consistently, but I like to think that I’m getting better at drafting.

Impressions about MID draft

I streamed all of my drafts in Twitch and ported them to Youtube if you are interested in watching them. Here is a summary from untapped.gg.

The most success that I have had in the drafts were with UB and BW. Black has an awesome removal suite, and common removal is plentiful with DefenestrateimageOlivia's Midnight Ambushimage, and Eaten Aliveimage. For blue, Organ Hoarderimage is insanely good and usually plentiful. I drafted at least two almost every time I went blue. An important element of this draft set is knowing what do with the decayed zombies. The zombies are perfect sacrifice fodder, so it’s important to make sure you pick both decayed producers and sacrifice payoffs. They can also be used to trigger the cards that care about damaging your opponent, like Arrogant Outlawimage. Finally, one thing that I tried to experiment with a bit was using Jack-o'-Lanternimage to splash third color bombs. 

Kindly remember to follow me on Aetherhub to get notified when I post a new article. 

About variancekills:

Hi, I'm Mark. I've won exactly one World Magic Cup Qualifier, one Preliminary Pro Tour Qualifier, one Arena Open ($2k) and one CFB Pro Showdown (April, 2021), and I am looking to win more. I've played in almost every Mythic Championship Qualifier Weekend and made Day 2 four times (so far). Follow my FB page or subscribe to my Twitch channel for no frills, competitive Magic. You won't see my face, but I won't hide my gameplay and deckchoice flaws. I play both MTGA and MTGO and stream most of the time when I do. I will lose often, and I will make mistakes, but I try my best to let you know when I do (and I think I will still win a lot more times than I lose).

The challenge for me every season is to find the best decks and make the most use out of them before they're no longer the best decks, or they get banned. I play a ton of limited when a set is just released in order to complete most of the rares for the set within a short timeframe. With the availability of Premier Drafts and the Metagame Challenge, I've spent as little as 2000 gold completing a set's rares. I'm currently sitting on over 800k gold and over 70k gems but have spent a grand total of $105 in the game.

I produce occassional video articles about the game that cover things that interest me, such as how to know when your rank is safe for a month's MCQW slot, how much you need to spend to get to Day 2 of an Arena Open, or how MDFCs affect Arena's Bo1 shuffler. I also mythbust a ton of crap about the game that you've no doubt heard or read about somewhere.

Finally, I'm a dad and husband first, a statistician, teacher, and researcher second (I know those are 3 things but bear with me), a Magic player third, and a content creator only because I am a Magic player. 

So yeah, let's play some Magic and may the shuffler be with us all.

FB page: https://www.facebook.com/deathbyvariance

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