AFR Limited Report and 1k Gem Codes Giveaway

Economy Limited 
By: variancekills - 12 Jul 2021

A lot of players are curious about how good you need to be in draft in order to profit from MTGA draft events. In response to this, I am writing this article as part of a series where I provide details of my limited run every set.

Context

As I discussed in a previous article, part of what makes playing MTGA efficient for the FTP or almost FTP player is being decent in limited. Having enough clout in this format will make the entire experience of collecting cards much more pleasant. How much clout? The following figure provides a good idea.

As shown in the figure, you need at least a 30% win rate in Quick Draft in order to make it more efficient on average than just buying packs with your gold. On the other hand, you need a higher win rate, about 54%, to say the same about premier or traditional draft. Furthermore, if you do have a high win rate in Premier/Traditional, you are better off playing that than Quick Draft on average. As for choosing between Premier or Traditional, that is a more complicated question perhaps for another time. However, I have chosen Premier over Traditional since ZNR.

AFR Limited Run

For Adventures in Dungeons and Dragons, I did 15 Premier Draft runs. The goal is to get to at least 120 in terms of number of packs won plus number of rares opened from draft packs. This gives me enough packs to get at least some of the rares I might need. Then, I try to win about 70 or so packs from the Metagame Challenge. In combination with the free packs from the mastery pass and end of season rewards, this strategy leads to almost completing all the rares by the next set.

My limited run started poorly, going 2-3 in the first and then 1-3 in the second. This was followed by my first 7-win. From there, it got a lot better. Out of 15 runs, I went 7-wins thrice, 6-wins twice, 5 and 4-wins once, 3 wins four times, and four duds (0-2 wins). This translates to a 58.59% match win rate, which is higher than my performance in the past three sets (ZNR to STX). The total cost of 15 runs for AFR was 4650 gems. I won 49 prize packs and pulled 80 rares. Had I used the gems to buy packs, I would have only been able to buy 23 packs with it, so drafting yielded 26 extra packs and 80 random rares for the same price. 

At the rate of conversion for draft (10000 gold = 1500 gems), 4650 gems comes up to 31000 gold. This means that you need to have saved at least 31000 gold to attempt the run. In actuality, you need more in order to weather out the variance, but you can save at least 60k gold from the time that STX released to the time that AFR released, so there is certainly enough time to gather the resources for the task.

Impressions about AFR draft

I streamed all of my drafts in Twitch and ported them to Youtube if you are interested in watching them. I am doing a code giveaway for subscribers to the Youtube Channel and/or followers on Twitch (details at the end of this article).

The most success I have had was with RB treasure/sacrifice decks. Stealing opponents’ creatures with Price of Loyaltyimage and killing them with it, or sacrificing them via various enablers like Sepulcher Ghoulimage were typical routes to victory. I was able to try other archetypes, and I think my first 7-win was actually with UB saboteur, but I also went 0-wins with the deck during Draft # 12.

Dungeons are good but only if you have enough venture cards. If you are not able to pick up enough venture cards, it is fine not to run the few ones you have if there are better standalone choices. That said, actively picking cards to make sure you have enough venture cards is a good strategy. Dungeons are most powerful if you have enough of them AND you have cards that receive a bonus once you have completed a dungeon, like Cloister Gargoyleimage.

Artifacts and enchantments are both relevant in the set. Picking up cards that destroy them AND provide a body or an alternate use like Dawnbringer Clericimage or Plundering Barbarianimage is good. In addition to this, building your deck around key or multiple equipment cards is likewise a good strategy. 

Subscriber/Follower 1k Gem Code giveaway

I hope you found the article enlightening and useful. In order to join the giveaway, all you need to do is subscribe to my YouTube channel, follow me on Twitch, or both. You get one entry for doing each. Once you have done so, kindly comment in this article with the YouTube and/or Twitch handle that you used to subscribe/follow. This serves as your entry/entries. I will be giving away one 1k gem code for every 10 people who participate up to a maximum of 10 codes. Each entry can win separately. These codes are sponsored by the Wizards Creator Program and there is a limit of 10 codes that can be redeemed per account. We will do the giveaway next week (7/18) and winners will be notified through this article so remember to check back.

About variancekills:

Hi, I'm Mark. I've won exactly one World Magic Cup Qualifier, one Preliminary Pro Tour Qualifier, one Arena Open ($2k) and one CFB Pro Showdown (April, 2021), and I am looking to win more. I've played in almost every Mythic Championship Qualifier Weekend and made Day 2 four times (so far). Follow my FB page or subscribe to my Twitch channel for no frills, competitive Magic. You won't see my face, but I won't hide my gameplay and deckchoice flaws. I play both MTGA and MTGO and stream most of the time when I do. I will lose often, and I will make mistakes, but I try my best to let you know when I do (and I think I will still win a lot more times than I lose).

The challenge for me every season is to find the best decks and make the most use out of them before they're no longer the best decks, or they get banned. I play a ton of limited when a set is just released in order to complete most of the rares for the set within a short timeframe. With the availability of Premier Drafts and the Metagame Challenge, I've spent as little as 2000 gold completing a set's rares. I'm currently sitting on over 800k gold and over 70k gems but have spent a grand total of $105 in the game.

I produce occassional video articles about the game that cover things that interest me, such as how to know when your rank is safe for a month's MCQW slot, how much you need to spend to get to Day 2 of an Arena Open, or how MDFCs affect Arena's Bo1 shuffler. I also mythbust a ton of crap about the game that you've no doubt heard or read about somewhere.

Finally, I'm a dad and husband first, a statistician, teacher, and researcher second (I know those are 3 things but bear with me), a Magic player third, and a content creator only because I am a Magic player. 

So yeah, let's play some Magic and may the shuffler be with us all.

FB page: https://www.facebook.com/deathbyvariance

Comments

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54 comments

Hecatomb
Code redeemed successfully. Thanks so much!
variancekills
@Hecatomb code sent.
Hecatomb
I just Checked back in today… sorry for the delay. My email is danielwpaden@gmail.com. Thanks so much!
errtuz
I got the code, awesome !

What better to use it on than going 0-3 in draft now :D
variancekills
I was able to dm everyone's Twitch except for Hecatomb who only has Youtube. @Hecatomb you will need to post an email, FB profile, or Twitch to which I can send the code.
variancekills
Here are the winners:
Dark_Light
errtuz
Hecatomb
Daltonicosk8
andypro92

I will send the code as a dm in your Twitch if you entered with Twitch. If you only entered with youtube, you will need to send me an email for me to send the code to. Kindly confirm once you get and have used the code. Thank you all for joining!
variancekills
Entries are closed as of this post. We will be giving away 5 1k gem codes. I will do the draw live on Twitch and post the winners here.
AltesLand
TY for your work!

YT: Björn Weide
Twitch: urielchayjh
gambit1286
nice article.

youtube: brandon craig
xelendar
Thank you for the article!
Youtube: Bruno Carvalho
Twitch: blc99
show more comments
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