What Happens To LOTR Collector Box Price With The One Ring Found?

The rollercoaster ride that was the serialized One Ring MTG card is now over; if you've not heard, the One Ring has been found and proven authentic. You can find all the details here - "The One Ring Found & Confirmed Real!" So, the question on everyone's mind now is what happens to the LOTR Collector Booster prices now that the ring has been found? Many people believed (myself included) the prices would tank when the ring was pulled. However, that doesn't seem to be the case, at least not for long.

I'll elaborate on what the numbers seem to point to in the future of Lord of the Rings Collector Booster prices and discuss what these trends mean for MTG sets and serialized cards moving forward. Without further ado, let's get into answering these questions.

The Future Of LOTR Collector Boxes

The one-of-one (001/001) One Ring and the chase for it captivated not only the MTG world but the world as a whole, and the Collector Boosters were the only products that gave you a chance at pulling it. As a result, we saw the boxes soar to prices unlike we've ever seen before. At their highest (just before the ring was found), the cheapest boxes were around $520, including shipping and taxes.

Given that the hunt for the serialized ring is what was driving the insane prices, it was logical to think with it found, the prices would crash. The consensus was that buyers hunting the ring would lose interest, the boxes would crash hard, and be worth substantially less with no hype from the ring. This was half right and half wrong.

The Prices - Post Ring

They did go down initially. They're still down from their peak. After the ring was found, they dropped to around $350, with two lucky buyers snagging a box for $325! But two things were baffling. First, the prices swung wildly over, sometimes only a few minutes. For example, TCGPlayer sales records show that prices fluctuated as much as 12% between one sale and the next. Check this out:

After the two lowest sales (for $325), the price for the very sales were $365, $371, and $372. If the LOTR madness brought you to MTG, and you're unfamiliar with regular sets, prices jumping by over 10% in minutes isn't normal—quite the contrary. Now, onto the next thing that surprised me - These things are still selling like wildfire. The number of boxes sold and the rate they sold on TCGPlayer and eBay with the One Ring unfound was unlike anything in MTG.

That said, sales have increased since the ring was found! That's right. Even more people are buying now than before the ring was found, which was something I didn't foresee. It turns out that there's such a demand for the Tales of Middle-Earth set that the ring no longer being in circulation, making the prices drop was viewed as an opportunity for people to buy more.

So, not only is there still demand for the product post 001/001 ring, it seems to have created even more demand. Or at least, it gives people a slightly better price point to get their hands on the boxes. But that's the kicker - the prices are going back up now. People have shown that they're more than interested in these boxes without the One-of-One in play, and the prices are already back up (and somewhat stable) at $400-410.

If you want to pick up Collector Boosters, now is the time to get them. Judging by the sales trends online, they're on the rise again. And seeing how things went and are currently going, I won't be surprised if they continue to go up from here. Even back up to around the peak of $500 wouldn't surprise me.

Sustained Value

The numbers make a pretty clear statement - The LOTR Collector Boxes haven't lost all their value, and people still want them. So, what's driving the value now that the One-of-One ring has been found? There are a few things, but I think the serialized Sol Rings are the main ones. While they're numerous compared to The One Ring, they're certainly scarce in general.

These come in limited nonserialized and serialized double rainbow foil versions. The number of each version equals how many that race received in the book multiplied by 1000 for the nonserialized version and 100 for the numbered ones. So, the numbers are as follows:

• Elven Version:
  • 3,000 non-foil, nonserialized
  • 300 serialized double rainbow foils
• Dwarven Version:
  • 7,000 non-foil nonserialized
  • 700 serialized double rainbow foil cards
• Human Version:
  • 9,000 non-foil nonserialized
  • 900 serialized double rainbow foil cards

With the One Ring out of the equation, these are the most significant things players can get from Collector packs. And while the One-of-One overshadowed them, some of these are worth several thousand dollars. Before this set and the insanity of The Ring, brand-new cards selling for Reserved List prices wasn't something that happened.

Plus, from a lore point of view, WOTC did a fantastic job on this portion of the set and created a recipe for the sustained value of the product. Similarly, just the Lord of the Rings IP creates value for the set. And aside from lottery cards, the set has many valuable playable cards. The non-serialized versions of The One Ring (it turns out it's a great card, hype aside) are $50-60 each, and Orcish Bowmasters isn't cheap.

What This Means For The Future Of Magic

Wizards of the Coast and Hasbro do not repeat their mistakes. When they try something that doesn't work financially, they don't do it again. The 30th Anniversary product is a perfect example of this. On the flip side, when something works, they'll milk it for all it's worth and then some. For those of you who haven't been around MTG long, let me say this clearly - Nothing has ever succeeded on the scale of Lord of the Rings: Tales of Middle-Earth has.

To say it was a massive success is an understatement. $500+ Collector Boxes flying off shelves, the One Ring reaching offers of over two million dollars, Magic: the Gathering news being covered by MSN, The Wall Street Journal, and other major news sites; It was all ground-breaking, and we'll likely never see anything like it again. But make no mistake about it; WOTC is going to try. They will take the blueprint from this set and make it the new normal. So, what does that mean?

More One-of-One Serialized Cards

They've been playing around with the serialized or numbered cards for a while now. The 500 numbered cards from The Brothers' War are the best example. However, there are a few others too. That said, nothing captures the hearts and minds of the masses like a true Willy Wonka final "Golden Ticket" situation.

Now, I don't know if WOTC will be able to capture lightning in a bottle twice, and what happens to the value of things like this if they become less conceptually unique remains to be seen. But the 001/001 One Ring was far too great of a success not to repeat. Without a doubt, ultra-rare, serialized cards are the future.

Other Serilaized Cards

Aside from actual One-of cards, I expect there will also be other rare cards. In this context, rare means 500 or fewer copies. And if I had to guess, I would say substantially fewer. I think we'll see three-of-cards or something similar. Because the Elven, Dwarven, and Human Sol Ring cards seem to carry the value of LOTR Collector Boosters post One Ring, they'll incorporate a similar safety net for future sets like this.

A Push Toward Universes Beyond

I think it's safe to assume that Wizards will look for other popular IPs that could play the role Lord of the Rings played here. And aside from the success with Tales of Middle-Earth, there are some signs that this is the way WOTC wants to go moving forward. I base this on the lack of time, money, or care they're investing in the Magic: The Gathering canon.

Take March of the Machine: The Aftermath as an example. It was pretty clear Wizards didn't even try with this set. Mechanically and conceptually, they lopped off part of the main March of the Machine set and sold it as a separate, inflated set. The storyline was bad and full of holes, inconsistencies, and flaws. They spelled a character's name wrong for half of the story, and no one caught it. This wasn't them trying and failing - It was them not trying. And, of course, the set flopped hard.

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Now fast forward just a few weeks, and they nailed the biggest success in the history of MTG and TCGs in general... Don't think they didn't notice this contrast. And think about how much cheaper/more effortless it is to do Universes Beyond. They paid the Tolkien Estate, ink, and cardboard and sold the cards for twice as much as usual! If they continue to use other popular IPs, they don't have to do story design, character design, or world-building.

Conclusion

Many MTG players and LOTR fans wanted to get in on the Collector Boosters for this set but couldn't justify the $500 price tag. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like The One Ring being found will bring them much lower or keep them there for long. The hype around the set seems to have transcended even The Ring.

This set is/was a groundbreaking, once-in-a-lifetime event. And love it or hate it, it has warped the game landscape and will heavily influence future products. Comment below with your thoughts on what this means for the game and the current price trends of the Collector Boosters.