Fine-tuning the Samut Aggro Deck with Nahiri's Warcrafting

Introduction

This is the sixth version of my red aggro deck, which splashes green for Samut, Vizier of Naktamun (and the third version with splashing only Samut from Gruul). In this version:

• I added Nahiri's Warcrafting and Feldon, Ronom Excavator to the deck.
• I removed Squee, Dubious Monarch.

Format

• The deck is for the Standard format with Wilds of Eldraine being the last legal set.
• The deck is probably Tier 1 or Tier 1.5 caliber.
• The deck can be played in both Bo1 and Bo3.
• The deck is pretty fast, and thus it's suitable for quickly grinding a large number of wins in the MTG Arena ladder.

Source

This is my own brew, but the changes in this version were inspired by a 5–0 red aggro deck by astudas. 

Overview

Strengths

• Almost as fast as a traditional red aggro deck.
• Access to enchantment removal, such as Boseiju, Who Endures.
• Samut, Vizier of Naktamun can draw you lots of cards while not sacrificing much damage.
• Samut, Vizier of Naktamun has vigilance, which might help against The Wandering Emperor and in defense.
• Samut, Vizier of Naktamun's first strike can be useful at times, too. It's especially nice with instants.

Weaknesses

• Fast and slow lands may come into play tapped, slowing you down.
• Pain lands may cause damage, giving advantage to the opponent.
• Most creatures die to Cut Down and Gix's Command.
• Relatively high non-creature spell count may cause you sometimes to draw no or very few creatures. However, non-creature spells are required to boost Monastery Swiftspear and remove blockers.
• Only Goddric, Cloaked Reveler can fly among the creatures in the deck. However, flying creatures don't usually deal much damage, slowing you down.

Mana Base Statistics

• Total of 23 lands
• 19 lands produce red mana
• 14 lands produce green mana
• 2 lands produce colorless mana

Starting Hand Probabilities

Bo3 (No Hand Smoothing)

• At least two lands: 83.49 %
• 2–5 lands: 82.46 %
• At least 1 red mana: 94.18 %
• At least 2 red mana: 72.06 %
• At least 1 green mana: 86.14 %

Bo1 (Hand Smoothing)

Ranked Queue (Best of 2 Hands)

Hand smoothing in the ranked queue takes the best of 2 different starting hands (of 2 different deck shuffles).

• 2–5 lands: 96.92 % (approximately)

Play Queue (Best of 3 Hands)

Hand smoothing in the play queue takes the best of 3 different starting hands (of 3 different deck shuffles).

• 2–5 lands: 99.46 % (approximately)

Land Probabilities

Probabilities are for on the play / on the draw.

Land Count

With 2-Land Starting Hand

• At least 3 lands by turn 3: 64.01 % / 78.83 %
• At least 4 lands by turn 4: 34.36 % / 52.15 %
• At least 5 lands by turn 5: 16.58 % / 30.37 %

With 3-Land Starting Hand

• At least 4 lands by turn 4: 76.71 % / 86.03 %
• At least 5 lands by turn 5: 48.76 % / 63.21 %

With 4-Land Starting Hand

• At least 5 lands by turn 5: 84.16 % / 90.30 %

With Any Starting Hand

• At least 3 lands by turn 3: 75.53 % / 82.79 %
• At least 4 lands by turn 4: 58.60 % / 68.28 %
• At least 5 lands by turn 5: 41.67 % / 51.99 %

Color Count

With 1-Red-Mana Starting Hand

• At least 2 red mana by turn 2: 33.96 % / 56.82 %
• At least 2 red mana by turn 3: 56.82 % / 72.06 %
• At least 3 red mana by turn 3: 11.10 % / 26.34 %

With 0-Green-Mana Starting Hand

• At least 1 green mana by turn 3: 46.23 % / 60.99 %
• At least 1 green mana by turn 4: 60.99 % / 71.91 %

With Any Starting Hand

• At least 2 red mana by turn 3: 85.35 % / 89.68 %
• At least 1 green mana by turn 3: 92.55 % / 94.59 %

Spell Statistics

Probabilities are for on the play / on the draw.

Spell Count

With Any Starting Hand

• At least 1 1-mana spell on turn 1: 80.94 % / 85.25 %
• At least 1 2-mana spell by turn 2: 87.71 % / 90.78 %
• At least 1 3-mana spell by turn 3: 75.11 % / 79.02 %